2022 Masters Preview: Tiger Woods Side Show Adds Intrigue to ‘Golf Betting Super Bowl’ | Bet

By Matt Youmans VSiN

When the statement was made by Tiger Woods on Sunday morning, it looked like football season. Woods has declared himself a “playing time decision” to compete in the Masters, which means he may not decide until Thursday morning if he should.

Woods’ status is comparable to that of a playing or sitting quarterback on game day. At its peak, Woods’ influence on a golf odds chart exceeded the value of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers by a point. But at 46 and just over a year from a serious car accident, Woods is more of a circus attraction than a serious threat to win this week.

Tiger’s story is phenomenal for fan interest and betting action. His presence as a player at Augusta National is welcomed by everyone. Yet, as American showman PT Barnum would have said in the 1800s, “There’s a sucker born every minute.”

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Woods’ odds of winning in Augusta range from 40-1 at DraftKings to 90-1 at Circa Sports. A Las Vegas bookmaker recently said that the “true odds” on Tiger – eliminating factors such as sports betting financial responsibility and the fairy tale scenario – are likely 300 to 1. In other words, only suction cups take double-digit ratings.

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“Hopefully Tiger plays in this deal so we don’t have to refund those bets,” Westgate SuperBook golf bettor Jeff Sherman said. “He has no chance of going out and winning.”

As Sherman spoke, a $50 bet on Woods at 80-1 appeared on his computer screen. Sherman scoffed at the bet, which was likely inspired by Woods’ 2019 Masters victory.

“I know some will say, ‘I’ve seen him do it before. It’s Tiger Woods,” Sherman said. “But his leg was broken a year ago, and he’s not going to go out and beat all these youngsters now. If he only plays this week, that’s his win. I hope he plays because that would add intrigue to the tournament. I am not concerned about his responsibility.

Woods’ liability for the SuperBook, Sherman said, would be well over $100,000. Don’t be surprised this week to see a story with a click-baiting headline highlighting the millions of dollars the books would lose if Tiger won. Instead, be surprised if Woods makes the cut and is there for the weekend.

Circa punter Jeff Davis has posted six Tiger bets that are generating good business. Woods is a -300 favorite to hit a shot and officially compete. There are props for his first round score (75) and finishing position (60.5) in addition to prizes on a Top 10 (No, -1400), Top 20 (No, -540) finish and make the cut (No, -160).

“If Tiger plays the Masters, I’d probably wipe him out of most – if not all – of the games and every other betting option,” said Paul Stone, a Texas professional handicapper. “With questions surrounding his ability to even walk comfortably on the golf course, I can’t imagine him stepping up under these circumstances and competing favorably with the best golfers in the world.”

On an odds board led by Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth, Woods is bottom of the list. There’s no bigger name in golf than Tiger, but there are so many young players with a sharper game at this point.

“I completely miss Tiger, and if he plays, I’ll bet him every game,” said professional bettor Jeff Sealey, who is traveling from Indianapolis to Las Vegas this week to get more involved in the game. action on the golf version of the Super Bowl.

Sealey’s first choice is Koepka, who is far from the start, accurate with the irons and knows his way around the course. Koepka, Johnson and Xander Schauffele tied for second when Woods won in 2019. Koepka, 0 for 9 in the majors since winning the PGA in 2019, offers respectable value in the 20-1 range.

“The long iron game is as important as the driving distance, maybe even more so,” Sealey said. “Players end up hitting 50% more shots from 200+ yards than they do in an average PGA Tour event, so that’s definitely a key area I’m looking at this week.”

Sealey made Masters bets on Patrick Cantlay (25-1) and Will Zalatoris several weeks ago. Zalatoris’ odds were as high as 40-1 at the end of January before dropping to 30-1 in most books. Zalatoris finished second last year, one shot behind Hideki Matsuyama. Sealey is also targeting long-iron wizards Hovland (18-1) and Thomas (15-1).

“When I raced my most recent model, Justin Thomas was on top,” Sealey said. “I haven’t decided yet if I’m going to bet JT or not, and I’m leaning against giving the price, but that’s what my role model likes this week. Player #2 is Hovland, who has a profile quite similar to JT. I’m more inclined to bet that Hovland will win at a better price than I am JT.

The current price on Smith is a tricky one. I bet Smith at 41-1 in early January when the Aussie beat Rahm in the first event of the year in Maui. It’s hard to brag about Smith now at odds around 16-1. He’s popular because of his Players Championship win in March, and he’s finished second, fifth and 10th in five trips to Augusta.

“When it comes to favorites, I love Cameron Smith,” Stone said. “My long-term recommendation would be Matt Fitzpatrick (82-1 at Circa), who is in great shape and finished tied for seventh at Augusta in 2016. Augusta’s greens have so many undulations and multiple levels that knowing where to land approach shots is critical to success.Strokes Gained: Approach is a stat I’m paying close attention to in handicapping this event, and Smith currently ranks eighth on the circuit.

Sherman plans to post 200 two-way props to the SuperBook by Tuesday, further proof that the Masters is the Super Bowl of golf betting. The odds for this tournament have been on the rise for almost a year, creating a unique dilemma for even the most selective bettors: with so many months to assess prize money, it’s easy to buy too many players on the draw board. forward contracts.

How many futures bets are too many? There is no right answer to this tricky question.

I have nine games in the future, maybe I’ll add a few more and that’s probably too many. My bets so far are on Johnson (18-1), Koepka (20-1), Zalatoris (40-1), Smith (41-1), Joaquin Niemann (87-1), Seamus Power (125-1 ), Justin Rose (128-1), Cameron Young (425-1) and Cameron Champ (500-1). Three-digit long-term plays are mostly one-fifth of a unit, so I actually bet about four units on futures.

Sherman said he has bets on Koepka (20-1), Cantlay (30-1), Morikawa (30-1), Hovland (33-1), Smith (35-1), Scheffler (35-1 ) and Talor Gooch. (275-1).

“There are so many good golfers out there now, and you can put yourself in a good position and get a lot of value with a group of guys who might be in contention on Sunday,” Sherman said. “Even if I bet seven guys, if one of them comes in, I’m still going to do very well. It’s not like I bet on a group of guys between 14-1 and 20-1.

Whether Woods plays or not, the show will go on – and it should be another fantastic Masters tournament.

Check out the VSiN Masters 2022 Betting Guide:

VSiN Masters 2022 Betting Guide


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Matt Youmans is editor and host for VSiN.

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