Cowboys Super Bowl odds could drop early this season

No team could hold on offensively to the Dallas Cowboys last season. The NFC East champions finished the year with the most points and the second-highest yardage. However, with an offense as prolific as the Cowboys, you would expect odds of over +1800 in the Super Bowl futures market. Given the departure of several deep receiving options, there is concern that the Cowboys will pick up where they left off.

Receiver Concerns

Dak Prescott’s ability to spread the ball around the receiving body made the Cowboys offense special. Five receivers finished the campaign with 445 yards or more, including seven with at least 35 receptions. The loss of several vital receivers will increase CeeDee Lamb’s utilization while amplifying the opposing team’s focus on the third-year passer.

Amari Cooper was dealt to the Cleveland Browns and is a hard-hitting loss for Dallas. Last year, Cooper tied for the second-most targets on the team, racking up the second-most receiving yards and finishing with the most touchdowns.

Additionally, the Cowboys lost Cedrick Wilson Jr., who went into free agency, signing with the Miami Dolphins. Wilson Jr. ranked second on the Cowboys, averaging 13.4 yards per catch and six touchdowns. Michael Gallup will eventually absorb some of the additional targets available. Still, the 26-year-old has battled injuries recently and continues to recover from a torn ACL sustained in Week 17. Although James Washington will make up for those losses, the Oklahoma State product broke his foot, leaving no clear timeline for when Gallup and Washington will adapt.

It’s not to lessen the threat of Lamb and Dalton Schultz. Still, opponents may emphasize two-star coverage with fewer receiving options, forcing Prescott to turn to secondary options.

Ezekiel Elliott of old

Ezekiel Elliott burst onto the scene in 2016, rushing for a career-high 1,631 yards and finishing third in AP MVP voting. Since then, we’ve seen a steady decline in his rushing yards per game, from 108.7 yards per game in his rookie season to 58.9 in 2021. Likewise, the Cowboys have decreased their reliance on of their standout, watching his touches by a game-low 13.9 last year, down from his career-best rating of 24.2 in 2017.

Given the reception issues, a vintage season from Elliott is critical to their success, but there’s no guarantee he’ll return to All-Pro form.

defensive judgment

The Cowboys’ defense has done well to keep opponents off the scoreboard, exploiting the NFL’s eighth-best scoring unit, but there’s a lag between scoring defense and yards allowed. Dallas finished the year giving up 13th most yards rushing and through the air, ranking 18th in the league in total defense. The bend-but-don’t-break mentality has helped them secure their Premier League title since 2018, but is incompatible with long-term success. We could see a more determined effort from the Cowboys this season, but failing that, we could see an increase in points against.

BetMGM Super Bowl Insights and Analysis

A general rule in NFL betting is that the public loves the Cowboys. With no confirmed action reports, any line movement in the Cowboys futures price should be taken with a grain of salt.

Dallas is tasked with passing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams in the first six weeks of the season. Given their current position in the betting market, as well as the aforementioned concerns, we should see their price drop early this year.

Now is not the time to buy on the Cowboys, but if they get healthy and find their rhythm on offense, we could see their Super Bowl odds improve later in the campaign.

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