NY Jets expected to be most likely team to win 2023 Draft No. 1 pick
The New York Jets seem to disrespect ESPN’s projection model
The New York Jets haven’t been disrespectful for the past decade and more.
These are the new Cleveland Browns: ridiculed in the media, used as the quintessential example of a franchise buried before the season even started.
Although Jets Nation believes this season will be different, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) apparently disagrees. The index is a model that projects each team’s likely draft window for the following season.
It’s bad enough that the Vegas over/under wins for the Jets in 2022 are 5.5. It has become a popular choice for most.
The REIT projects the Jets as the team most likely to end up with the No. 1 overall pick in 2023.
Does anyone think the Jets will be worse than the Chicago Bears?
The REIT actually ranks the Bears as the most likely to get the top pick at 13.7% vs. 13.6%. However, the model also factors in the chances of a Top 10 selection. On this metric, the Jets are slightly ahead of the Bears, 68.4% to 67.9%. The overall standings list the Jets as the most likely candidate for the top pick.
Presumably, schedule strength is an important factor in these rankings. Also, if one assesses the likelihood by last season’s stats alone, then yes, Zach Wilson’s raw stats were pretty much the worst in the NFL at any level in 2022.
But this model shows its limits for predicting the growth of a young team as a whole. Jets fans are optimistic that with the added pieces around Wilson, the team will show growth from last season.
Do the Jets have any flaws? Clearly. As discussed in detail on this site, the run defense is the biggest concern.
But to say that this team is going to be worse than last season?! It’s the ultimate disrespect. That’s like saying what Joe Douglas did was futile. Give Robert Saleh his head on the chopping block.
Gang Green is used to not being respected. Brady Quinn hyperbolically buried them just weeks ago. Stephen A. Smith launched an infamous rant on the franchise. Once again, the Jets are the butt of jokes.
Now it’s up to Wilson & Co. to take that as motivation. Prove the skeptics wrong. Go out and participate in every game. Take out some upheavals. Be consistent on the attacking side of the ball.
ESPN, here’s a mission to make you question your model.