Stats with Context: Adjusted Completion Percentages for Kenny Pickett’s Career Beyond 9 Yards
The Pittsburgh Steelers selected quarterback Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft and since then general manager Kevin Colbert and head coach Mike Tomlin have both spoken highly of the new player. Specifically, Colbert and Tomlin praised Pickett’s college accuracy as one of many traits that made the former University of Pittsburgh quarterback attractive to them. With Pickett’s accuracy on display by Colbert and Tomlin since Pickett was selected in the first round, I thought this week would be a great time to dive into some of his career achievement stats.
For today’s statistical deep dive, I decided to look at Pickett’s career college accuracy on passing 10-19 and passing 20 yards or more. Additionally, and because Pittsburgh had a high number of drops while Pickett was the starter there, looking at quarterbacks’ adjusted completion percentage seems very necessary.
What is an adjusted percentage of completion? According to Pro Football Focus, an adjusted completion percentage metric is a better way to look at a quarterback’s overall accuracy at his baseline. Adjusted completion percentage takes into account factors beyond the quarterback’s control in terms of pass completion. It takes into account dropped passes, rejected passes, spiked balls, passes hit at the line of scrimmage, and passes in which a quarterback was tagged while throwing. Ultimately, this gives a true indication of the completion percentage on passes that can actually be caught, as opposed to a quarterback’s completion percentage for any given game tarnished by a load of receiver drops or other factors.
With that definition out of the way and with our passing depths defined, below are career-adjusted completion percentages for several college quarterbacks. This list of quarterbacks includes former first- and second-round draft picks in addition to the top five quarterbacks in the 2022 draft class. The other two Steelers quarterbacks currently under contract, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph , are also included in this list.
The purpose of adding so many different quarterbacks is obviously meant to provide some general context for these stats.
As you can see below, Pickett recorded an adjusted completion percentage of 64.2% on throws from 10 to 19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage during his college career. Coincidentally, he’s ranked just between Trubisky and Rudolph in this stat. Three-quarters of the Steelers rank just ahead of Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen. This should provide more than enough context.
When it comes to throws of 20 yards or more, Pickett’s adjusted completion percentage of 45.5% is more than respectable and especially considering that it puts him ahead of first-round quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Allen. While Pickett’s aDOT (average depth of target) of 29.3 is the third-lowest on this list, he’s only 1.3 yards away from being in the middle of the pack. His 17 drops also stand out, as does his 34 drops in the 10-19 yard board.
Now, these are just raw stats of two sets of passing distances, with the primary focus being adjusted completion percentage. While the attempt is to provide some context with these stats, they still lack more context, such as down and distance, court area, opponent’s difficulty, and match score. These stats are just a glimpse of 30,000 feet, if you will, so read them what you will. I see it as a starting point.
All stats courtesy of PFF:
College Career throws 10 to 19 yards | ||||||||||||
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PLAYER | UNIVERSITY | ATT | COMP | YARDS | TD | INT | DROPS | YPL | COMP % | AJCOMP % | EVALUATION | A POINT |
Justin Fields | USO | 149 | 108 | 1659 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11.1 | 72.5% | 77.9% | 137.3 | 13.7 |
McJones | TO THE | 134 | 95 | 1898 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 14.2 | 70.9% | 76.9% | 146.6 | 13.7 |
Mayfield Baker | OK SO | 299 | 197 | 3291 | 38 | 9 | 28 | 11.0 | 65.9% | 75.3% | 129.9 | 13.2 |
Kyler Murray | OK SO | 135 | 87 | 1558 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 11.5 | 64.4% | 72.6% | 140.4 | 13.3 |
Matt Coral | OLE | 215 | 130 | 2452 | 16 | 6 | 19 | 11.4 | 60.5% | 69.3% | 113.2 | 13.5 |
Jalen hurts | OK SO | 232 | 145 | 2627 | 24 | 8 | 15 | 11.3 | 62.5% | 69.0% | 121.5 | 13.9 |
Zach Wilson | BYU | 236 | 145 | 2421 | 14 | 5 | 17 | 10.3 | 61.4% | 68.6% | 107.0 | 13.7 |
Sam Howell | A C | 272 | 163 | 2957 | 23 | 4 | 22 | 10.9 | 59.9% | 68.0% | 119.4 | 13.1 |
Josh Rosen | UCLA | 263 | 159 | 2914 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 11.1 | 60.5% | 66.9% | 112.9 | 14.0 |
Joe Terrier | USL | 210 | 126 | 2330 | 20 | 5 | 14 | 11.1 | 60.0% | 66.7% | 120.1 | 13.6 |
lamar jackson | LOU | 233 | 135 | 2315 | 20 | 6 | 19 | 9.9 | 57.9% | 66.1% | 109.6 | 13.6 |
Kyle Trask | FLORIDA | 217 | 130 | 2215 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 10.2 | 59.9% | 65.9% | 100.3 | 13.7 |
Justin Herbert | ORE | 286 | 156 | 2750 | 27 | 12 | 32 | 9.6 | 54.6% | 65.7% | 101.6 | 13.9 |
Dwayne Haskins | USO | 112 | 68 | 1185 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 10.6 | 60.7% | 65.2% | 121.5 | 13.8 |
Tua Tagovailoa | TO THE | 175 | 107 | 2129 | 29 | 5 | 7 | 12.2 | 61.1% | 65.1% | 131.4 | 14.1 |
Mitchell Trubisky | A C | 147 | 91 | 1587 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 10.8 | 61.9% | 64.6% | 114.0 | 13.3 |
Kenny Pickett | PITT | 352 | 192 | 3218 | 18 | 7 | 34 | 9.1 | 54.6% | 64.2% | 94.4 | 13.8 |
Mason Rudolf | OKST | 431 | 252 | 4318 | 24 | ten | 24 | 10.0 | 58.5% | 64.0% | 101.4 | 13.3 |
Trevor Lawrence | CLEM | 286 | 164 | 3016 | 31 | 5 | 18 | 10.6 | 57.3% | 63.6% | 122.7 | 14.0 |
Josh Allen | wyom | 158 | 90 | 1506 | 13 | ten | 8 | 9.5 | 57.0% | 62.0% | 90.3 | 13.9 |
Sam Darnold | USC | 187 | 108 | 1798 | 17 | ten | 7 | 9.6 | 57.8% | 61.5% | 98.3 | 13.7 |
Jordan love | UTST | 229 | 125 | 2011 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 8.8 | 54.6% | 61.1% | 95.8 | 13.4 |
Desmond Cavalier | RIC | 245 | 134 | 2244 | 22 | 12 | 14 | 9.2 | 54.7% | 60.4% | 95.3 | 14.0 |
Drew Lock | MIZZ | 328 | 164 | 2989 | 38 | ten | 32 | 9.1 | 50.0% | 59.8% | 107.6 | 13.8 |
Daniel Jones | duke | 236 | 124 | 2257 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 9.6 | 52.5% | 59.3% | 90.0 | 13.4 |
Trey Lance | NDSU | 86 | 49 | 865 | ten | 0 | 2 | 10.1 | 57.0% | 59.3% | 130.2 | 13.7 |
Malik Willis | BIB | 135 | 71 | 1184 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 8.8 | 52.6% | 57.0% | 84.9 | 13.4 |
College Career Throws Over 20 Yards | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PLAYER | UNIVERSITY | ATT | COMP | YARDS | TD | INT | DROPS | YPL | COMP % | AJCOMP % | EVALUATION | A POINT |
McJones | TO THE | 77 | 43 | 1732 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 22.5 | 55.8% | 62.3% | 129.5 | 32.4 |
Mayfield Baker | OK SO | 200 | 102 | 4103 | 43 | 4 | 14 | 20.5 | 51.0% | 58.0% | 127.9 | 31.3 |
Tua Tagovailoa | TO THE | 109 | 57 | 2125 | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19.5 | 52.3% | 57.8% | 122.0 | 29.8 |
Zach Wilson | BYU | 129 | 65 | 2273 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 17.6 | 50.4% | 54.3% | 116.4 | 30.0 |
Kyle Trask | FLORIDA | 115 | 57 | 1813 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15.8 | 49.6% | 53.9% | 124.2 | 28.6 |
Mason Rudolf | OKST | 288 | 138 | 5249 | 48 | 8 | 16 | 18.2 | 47.9% | 53.5% | 122.1 | 31.0 |
Joe Terrier | USL | 149 | 73 | 2592 | 37 | 4 | 6 | 17.4 | 49.0% | 53.0% | 123.4 | 29.8 |
Justin Fields | USO | 117 | 57 | 1856 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 15.9 | 48.7% | 52.1% | 120.1 | 31.9 |
Dwayne Haskins | USO | 78 | 36 | 1209 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 15.5 | 46.2% | 51.3% | 121.5 | 29.8 |
Matt Coral | OLE | 146 | 66 | 2448 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 16.8 | 45.2% | 49.3% | 97.0 | 32.8 |
Malik Willis | BIB | 123 | 49 | 1757 | 22 | 6 | 11 | 14.3 | 39.8% | 48.8% | 106.6 | 30.8 |
Trevor Lawrence | CLEM | 183 | 77 | 2875 | 33 | 8 | 11 | 15.7 | 42.1% | 48.1% | 110.6 | 30.6 |
Jalen hurts | OK SO | 175 | 74 | 2802 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 16.0 | 42.3% | 47.4% | 113.2 | 30.4 |
Sam Howell | A C | 221 | 89 | 3302 | 42 | 9 | 15 | 14.9 | 40.3% | 47.1% | 110.3 | 32.7 |
Kyler Murray | OK SO | 103 | 44 | 1703 | 19 | ten | 3 | 16.5 | 42.7% | 45.6% | 89.8 | 31.6 |
Kenny Pickett | PITT | 253 | 98 | 3537 | 34 | 15 | 17 | 14.0 | 38.7% | 45.5% | 101.3 | 29.3 |
Justin Herbert | ORE | 239 | 88 | 2934 | 40 | 6 | 20 | 12.3 | 36.8% | 45.2% | 113.0 | 30.0 |
Josh Allen | wyom | 147 | 58 | 1802 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12.3 | 39.5% | 44.2% | 102.9 | 30.2 |
Sam Darnold | USC | 151 | 61 | 1871 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 12.4 | 40.4% | 43.1% | 107.6 | 28.8 |
Desmond Cavalier | RIC | 250 | 90 | 3120 | 39 | 8 | 15 | 12.5 | 36.0% | 42.0% | 110.3 | 29.6 |
Drew Lock | MIZZ | 299 | 102 | 4055 | 42 | 18 | 20 | 13.6 | 34.1% | 40.8% | 97.1 | 31.7 |
Jordan love | UTST | 204 | 71 | 2462 | 31 | 8 | 12 | 12.1 | 34.8% | 40.7% | 104.6 | 29.4 |
Josh Rosen | UCLA | 158 | 54 | 1989 | 21 | 9 | ten | 12.6 | 34.2% | 40.5% | 98.5 | 30.5 |
lamar jackson | LOU | 219 | 72 | 2597 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 11.9 | 32.9% | 39.7% | 89.9 | 31.7 |
Mitchell Trubisky | A C | 95 | 34 | 1258 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 13.2 | 35.8% | 39.0% | 114.8 | 32.0 |
Trey Lance | NDSU | 59 | 20 | 807 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 13.7 | 33.9% | 39.0% | 114.9 | 34.2 |
Daniel Jones | duke | 157 | 44 | 1513 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 9.6 | 28.0% | 36.3% | 69.9 | 30.5 |
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