Sunday sweats: five bets to add to your NFL Week 1 card
Point spreads are not enough when it comes to the NFL.
There are so many ways to bet on America’s most popular sport, and I don’t want to ignore the others in the service of the most popular way. Thus, for the second consecutive year, Discussion points brings back the Sunday Sweats column which includes four weekly NFL-centric categories to complete the game chooses earlier in the week.
It’s NFL season now, and there is so much to cover, so much to handicap.
Read below for this week’s bets under the Sunday Sweats column.
Tasty Total (15-8-1, $ 563.65 last year): Ravens at Raiders under 50.5 (STN Sports)
Start on Sunday Column of sweats with a On Monday Play night football? That makes a lot of sense, doesn’t it? Maybe not, but I neglected the totals in my preparation for Season and Week 1, and therefore none are obvious to me. Perhaps with the exception of the Raiders’ first appearance at the Allegiant Stadium open to fans. These two teams will play a lot with the ball, keeping the clock running and reducing the chances of scoring points. The Raiders were in plenty of shootouts last year, but they should end up in fewer this year. Their defense looked much improved at training camp. The defense of the Ravens is always stingy. I would expect something like a 24-20 game here.
Two-team teaser (9-11, -356.90 last year): Pittsburgh Steelers +12.5 and New York Jets +10 to -120 (William Hill)
No matter how this column ends my best call came a week ago in the last weekend betting play (for now) when I decided to jump into the teaser melee early. Many textbook teaser options – right through to 3 and 7 – are gone, including my favorite from a week ago. It was Washington Football teased at +7.5 despite being a 1.5 point underdog, as I placed a bet on the +1.5 football team and the 49ers at -1.5. The only obvious two-team pick left is 49ers -2.5 and Rams -1.5, but I don’t have a good feeling about that so I’m going to think outside the box a bit. Here I am spending at least the 7 and the 10 (almost) with two teams that should be in low scoring games. I don’t see the Jets or Steelers losing in double digits, so while I might not like him as much as the previous Football Team-49ers couple, I still think this one is safe.
Moneyline Parlay (8-12, $ 867.26 last year): Atlanta Falcons + Arizona Cardinals +273 (William Hill)
Same basic formula as last year: find two of my favorite money lines and hope to match a sports bookmaker who offers better prices than the market. I can sometimes play with three or four players, but let’s try to make a profit first. I’m looking for every opportunity to bet against Tennessee this year as they could have the worst defense in the league and should see close game luck of the past two years decline. It’s a great place with Arizona at +135 when the Cardinals should arguably be closer to a pick’em. As for Atlanta, I thought the opening prices of -200 and -4 months ago were more accurate than the current consensus of -175 and -3 (-120) currently available. William Hill is even lower than the Falcons, with a -170 available. I have a furtive suspicion that there is steam late on Atlanta tomorrow to make the price of -170 a huge value.
Player Accessory (15-21, -533.89 last year): Marquez Callaway on 45.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM)
The Saints are going to give the Packers trouble. Jameis Winston is going to give the Packers problems. And if these two statements turn out to be true, it will have to happen in part through the larger target of the Saints. There’s no question it’s the sophomore Tennessee product coming into the season. Callaway has shown just how electric he can be and how much chemistry he has developed with Winston during the preseason, and while he can’t reach those heights when games matter, he should at least be able to overcome that. small number. Like last year, I will also have a weekly Raiders-themed props game that will run in the game day preview but tracked here. Look for this on Monday this week. Spoiler: It’s another on a wide receiver.
Non-football game (12-9, $ 457.62 last year): Shubhankar Sharma -105 head-to-head against Kiradech Aphibarnrat in the final round of the BMW PGA Championship (Circa Sports)
Aphibarnrat climbed to the top of the table after two rounds in England, but calmed down and fell back on Saturday. More of these should be expected on Saturday. Despite a stroke of delay, Sharma was the best player overall and got into better shape. The 25-year-old Indian has struggled on the European Tour this year, posting consistent results. He sits second in tee-to-green wins in this week’s tournament and comes across as being more likely to maintain his success on Sunday than Aphiarnrat.
Sunday sweats since the beginning of the year: 0-0, 0 $
All-Time Weekend Betting Column: 175-161, $ 4,949.17
Previous bets pending: Washington Football Team +1.5 and San Francisco 49ers -1.5 teaser -120; Texas on 8.5 wins +110; Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys win NFC East +150; Georgia 10-1 to win college football qualifiers; Baltimore Ravens win 20-1 Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12 on 1 to win the Masters 2022; Texas 50-1 to win NCAA 2022 tournament.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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