The NFL’s saddest Week 4 stats

If you missed any of the first three weeks of my sad ongoing NFL stats blogs, do yourself a favor and check them out here, as the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive.

Sad statistics from week 1

Sad statistics for week 2

Week 3 Sad Stats

I really appreciate everyone’s love on these. Knowing about this content helps other sad fans ease their pain if for a few moments in their day I’m so glad you’re all happy.

Now, let’s all be sad.

Sad stat No. 1: Justin Fields is on course to break the NFL’s fewest hits in a season record, even with the 17th extra game

You may have heard Big Cat mention it on Monday’s Pardon My Take, but I took it upon myself to draw a weekly pace chart which I plan to post on Twitter each week to track Justin’s progress. It’s pretty sad to know he’s well on the pace even with a one game handicap but to see how far ahead he is of Marcus Mariota who himself looks safe in the orange warning tier makes it even sadder.

Sad Stat #2: Russell Wilson has completed his third career pass and is aiming for Drew Brees’ all-time record

The Broncos were backed up in their own end zone when Russ received a pass in his face from 5’11”, forcing him to catch it and run for a 1-yard gain. This got me wondering to what extent quarterbacks catching their own passes relate to their short duration. Obviously, it makes sense that shorter quarterbacks would have more balls thrown back at them, putting them in such a situation. But what does the data say?

Data: “Ummmm yeah duh…”

I’ve done a correlation analysis for any quarterback with at least one self-catch since 1999 and there is indeed a negative correlation (r=-0.27) between height and number of self-catch passes for NFL quarterbacks. Of course, that doesn’t include quarterbacks who haven’t pitched one, so I think that number would help the correlation. Anyway, here’s what it all looks like graphically with some notable GOATs labeled:

Everybody. Absolutely everyone: ‘Of course Ryan Fitzpatrick ended up in another random QB stat’

The only thing more shocking about finding out that Drew Brees has caught six career passes on his own is that Kyler Murray has yet to catch one. But if you ever see a prop on career auto-passes for Murray and it’s anywhere below three – hammer it in right away. But pro advice – stay away from yards gained on self-catch passes, because the NFL average in all cases in this time range is -1.95 yards per play. Here’s the full distribution for your records.

All in all, Russell Wilson’s one-yard gain was actually quite impressive. The only shame is that in the NFL you can’t pass twice unlike the XFL and if the NFL aims to make the offense even higher I’m willing to submit this research to the powers that be to advocate for a rule change so that we may have some of that in the NFL:

Sad stat #3: Ravens are 1-2 this year as they lead by 17 points

If that’s not sad enough for Ravens fans, here’s a higher dose in milligrams:

This statistic is actually not accurate. This only meant for the two games lost. My data returned 17 seconds instead of 14, but either way, that’s all pretty much in line with the theme of this blog when you compare that to the total elapsed time lost in games lost for all NFL teams 2-2 :

There really are Chargers Chargering type things in Baltimore. I must have missed the transfer ceremony between the Chargers and the Ravens.

Sad stat #4: Lions’ 45 points was a franchise high for a loss

I think if your Lions fan knew your day would come to find your team on this blog, but honestly, that’s about as sad as it gets, so consider yourself lucky. They scored 45-plus points on 11 occasions, winning them all, including two 50-plus-point Thanksgiving wins to go along with a 44-point Thanksgiving loss that maybe I should put a pin in for a standalone turkey hour blog. Anyway, clearly I’ve spent too much time on the previous sad stats, so I’ll stop there.

Sad Stat #5: Matt Ryan has fumbled 9 times so far in four games

Big Cat beat me to PMT with this one, but I’ve been all over Matt Ryan’s old hand issues this year. Let’s give the old man some credit because he only lost three, which shows the experience of the elderly population when it comes to falls. Marcus Mariota and Baker Mayfield are next with six fumbles apiece. Kudos to Kyler Murray and Jameis Winston who lead the league in fumbles without losing possession on either (3).

It’s all for this week. Unless you’re a Panther fan and thought you’d get away from my guy, Ian Hartitz:

Sadder than that is that deep down, there’s at least a portion of all Panthers fans who are excited about Sam Darnold’s return. It’s about as sad as sad. Even so, I’ll take it over Justin Fields for more completions over the year.

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